global warming - an inconvenient truth

The predicted effects of global warming on the environment and for human life are numerous and varied. It is generally difficult to attribute specific natural phenomena to long-term causes, but some effects of recent climate change may already be occurring. Raising sea levels, glacier retreat, Arctic shrinkage, and altered patterns of agriculture are cited as direct consequences, but predictions for secondary and regional effects include extreme weather events, an expansion of tropical diseases, changes in the timing of seasonal patterns in ecosystems, and drastic economic impact. Concerns have led to political activism advocating proposals to mitigate, eliminate, or adapt to it

Effects on weather:
Increasing temperature is likely to lead to increasing precipitation but the effects on storms are less clear. Extratropical storms partly depend on the temperature gradient, which is predicted to weaken in the northern hemisphere as the polar region warms more than the rest of the hemisphere.

Storm strength leading to extreme weather is increasing, such as the power dissipation index of hurricane intensity. Kerry Emanuel writes that hurricane power dissipation is highly correlated with temperature, reflecting global warming.. However, a further study by Emanuel using current model output has concluded that the increase in power dissipation in recent decades cannot be completely attributed to global warming[9]. Hurricane modeling has produced similar results, finding that hurricanes, simulated under warmer, high-CO2 conditions, are more intense; there is less confidence in projections of a global decrease in numbers of hurricanes. Worldwide, the proportion of hurricanes reaching categories 4 or 5 – with wind speeds above 56 metres per second – has risen from 20% in the 1970s to 35% in the 1990s. Precipitation hitting the US from hurricanes has increased by 7% over the twentieth century. The extent to which this is due to global warming as opposed to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation is unclear. Some studies have found that the increase in sea surface temperature may be offset by an increase in wind shear, leading to little or no change in hurricane activity.

Increased evaporation:
Over the course of the 20th century, evaporation rates have reduced worldwide ; this is thought by many to be explained by global dimming. As the climate grows warmer and the causes of global dimming are reduced, evaporation will increase due to warmer oceans. Because the world is a closed system this will cause heavier rainfall, with more erosion. This erosion, in turn, can in vulnerable tropical areas (especially in Africa) lead to desertification due to deforestation. On the other hand, in other areas, increased rainfall lead to growth of forests in dry desert areas.

Scientists have found evidence that increased evaporation could result in more extreme weather as global warming progresses. The IPCC Third Annual Report says: “…global average water vapor concentration and precipitation are projected to increase during the 21st century. By the second half of the 21st century, it is likely that precipitation will have increased over northern mid- to high latitudes and Antarctica in winter

Destabilization of local climates:
 the northern hemisphere, the southern part of the Arctic region (home to 4,000,000 people) has experienced a temperature rise of 1 °C to 3 °C (1.8 °F to 5.4 °F) over the last 50 years. Canada, Alaska and Russia are experiencing initial melting of permafrost. This may disrupt ecosystems and by increasing bacterial activity in the soil lead to these areas becoming carbon sources instead of carbon sinks [30]. A study (published in Science) of changes to eastern Siberia’s permafrost suggests that it is gradually disappearing in the southern regions, leading to the loss of nearly 11% of Siberia’s nearly 11,000 lakes since 1971 [31]. At the same time, western Siberia is at the initial stage where melting permafrost is creating new lakes, which will eventually start disappearing as in the east. Furthermore, permafrost melting will eventually cause methane release from melting permafrost peat bogs.

Hurricanes:
  were thought to be an entirely North Atlantic phenomenon. In late March 2004, the first Atlantic cyclone to form south of the equator hit Brazil with 40 m/s (144 km/h) winds, although some Brazilian meteorologists deny that it was a hurricane. Monitoring systems may have to be extended 1,600 km (1,000 miles) further south. There is no agreement as to whether this hurricane is linked to climate change, but at least one climate model exhibits increased tropical cyclone genesis in the South Atlantic under global warming by the end of the 21st century.

I am all for change, particularly if it is from bottom up!

During the last 4 years, due to my interactions with the Global DNN community, I have become somewhat more aware of the global politics as on the daily basis I do talk to clients all around the world. Daily while I work, I tend to have BBC 24 or CNN on in the background. It helps me connect better with the clients as if I get a call from a client in US or Australia, I have a better feel about their local temperature or if there has just been a big news from their part of the world that can help me to relate to them better.I would say that at no other time have I been so infatuated with the election stories coming out of USA. I lived in UK most of my adult life since I was 13, yet I never really followed the UK elections. Mainly because it really does not matter who wins. the choice one has between Conservative and Labour is so marginal that it really has not affected me in any significant way to worry about it or make me want to Vote.Even though I live over here in one of the oldest democracies in the world, yet I never really feel like I have any control over the choices available here when it comes to politics. Prim minsters have traditionally been English, and gone to Eton and almost all got a degree from Oxford or Cambridge. Being part of the aristocracy helps a lot. If one is anything else then the chances of you getting the top job is almost nil.US Elections, this time around really fascinate me. I see a Woman, a African American and an older Man running for president. and two out of 3 are ordinary people from humble backgrounds. I am a little unsure about Hillary since I don’t think she would have been there if it wasn’t for her husband president Clinton. But, still the fact that she represents for the first time a woman reaching a couple of steps before the top job is a feat in itself.

This time around in American election, there seem to be a dramatic hunger for change taking place in the US. The diversity of the candidates suggests a deep desire of the voters, especially the young ones, for a new kind of leadership. It seems that there is a recognition that, Gen X and Gen Y are tired of the worn-out promises of the older generations and are yearning for authentic leaders throughout US. I know McCain is old, but somehow his background is humble and I think he got where he is now by just having experience and being professional throughout his life.

Watching the political events unfolding, from this side of the pond, I see the younger generations, not just in US but all over the world, are fed up with hollow promises, leaders who say what they think people want to hear, and politicians who appeal to our baser instincts, are hungry for new leaders whom they can trust to “tell it like it is.” People want leaders who can heal the divisions that have persisted in our recent times over the last 10 years and who can bring us together to solve the pressing problems we face. As Barack Obama said in his victory speech in Iowa, “It is not about red states or blue states, but the United States of America.” With more people like him around the world, we are likely to go beyond race and colour and religion and Unite the world for a better future.

Educated and younger Generations around the world, Seek Diversity and they identify with the current sentiment in US and draw parallel where ever they are, UK, Europe China…. You can see how people are suddenly rising up to the old ways all over the world.

When I watched the amazing speech by Obama by clicking here, which incidentally has been the most amazing speech I have heard in my entire life, I said, “Is this an authentic leader or what?” One of my greatest hopes would be to see authentic leadership spread not only throughout USA, but around the globe, so we can begin to deal with five great global issues we face: the environment, poverty, education, health care, and peace. This applies to US as much as it applies to India. I Just hope US realizes that how important it is for this man to win as more than anything it will send a message throughout the world that you no longer need to be part of the establishment to lead ones country.

I truly hope to see more modern emerging leaders are ready to cast off the leadership of older generations in favour of leaders who can unite the world across traditional divisions of religion, national origin, race, and gender, instead of splitting us. Whereas veiled and explicit prejudice against immigrants, gays, Muslims, Mormons, Jews, and even assertive females is more prevalent among older generations than anyone would like to admit, younger generations see the benefits and the strength that results from that diversity.

Question some people ask is “will this class of potential leader such as Obama in the US become a microcosm of leadership of the future?” I believe it could. The 20th century command-and-control organizations that went alone and excluded talented leaders because of their differences are a dying breed. Success in the 21st century can be sustained only through collaboration and diversity. Without leaders who are inclusive of people with diverse life experiences, there is no way you can build great organizations of talented people, empowered to change the world.

I was looking at fund raising for Obama and other candidates. And I was amazed that most of the money come from small donations of 25 - 100 usd. That is why I think this is amazing, no Washington manipulation, straight from ordinary people supporting an ordinary man. And the phenomenon is that he is raising more money than anyone else in this election without the slightest help from the big corporate expecting favours later.

Salar Golestanin